A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
